The recently published Police Scotland Prevent Referral Data for 2023-2024 offers valuable insights into the operation of the UK's counter-terrorism prevention strategy in Scotland. This comprehensive data set, presented to the Scottish Police Authority, provides a detailed overview of referrals, interventions, and outcomes within the Prevent framework. This blog analyses the key findings and implications of this report.
Key Findings: A Substantial Increase in Referrals
The most striking finding from the 2023-2024 report is the significant increase in Prevent referrals across Scotland. 114 referrals were made during this period, representing a substantial 31% increase compared to the previous year's figure of 87. This marks a continuing upward trend following the pandemic-affected years and raises important questions about the factors driving this increase.
Sources of Referrals
Consistent with previous years, the police and education sectors remain the primary sources of Prevent referrals. The police submitted the most significant proportion (46%), followed by educational institutions (31%). Within the education sector, secondary schools were responsible for the majority of referrals (23 out of 35), highlighting the important role that educators play in identifying potentially vulnerable individuals.
This pattern of referral sources has remained relatively stable over recent years, with the notable exception of 2020-21, when pandemic-related school closures significantly reduced education-based referrals.
Demographic Patterns: Youth Disparities
Age Distribution
The data reveals that young people remain the demographic most frequently referred to Prevent. Individuals aged 15-20 account for the largest proportion of referrals (38%), followed by those under 15 (24%). This concentration of referrals among younger age groups raises questions about vulnerability factors specific to adolescents and young adults.
Ideological Concerns: A Diverse Landscape
The report categorises referrals based on the type of ideological concern identified:
1. Mixed, Unstable, or Unclear ideology: The largest category at 38% of referrals
2. Right-Wing Extremism: The second largest at 32%
3. Islamist Extremism: Accounting for 17%
4. No Prevent Issue: 13% of referrals were ultimately assessed as not presenting genuine concerns
Interestingly, while Mixed/Unstable/Unclear ideology generated the most referrals, Right-Wing extremist cases were significantly more likely to be deemed suitable for Prevent Case Management. Of the 36 Right-Wing Extremism referrals, 29 (81%) were assessed as requiring intervention, compared to only 44% of Mixed/Unstable/Unclear ideology cases.
Regional Distribution
The geographical distribution of referrals across Scotland shows clear regional patterns. The West of Scotland generated the most referrals (46%), followed by the East (37%) and North (17%). This distribution broadly aligns with population density patterns but may also reflect varying regional approaches to identification and referral processes.
Assessment Outcomes and Intervention Pathways
Of the 114 referrals made to Prevent in 2023-24, exactly half (49%) were assessed as suitable for Prevent Case Management (PCM), while an equal number were deemed not suitable following initial assessment. Two referrals remained under assessment at the time of reporting.
For those cases deemed suitable for PCM, the report indicates that 89% were directed to multi-agency panels, with the remaining 11% managed through Police-led Partnership arrangements. This multi-agency approach underscores the collaborative nature of the Prevent strategy, bringing together expertise from various safeguarding fields.
Historical Trends and Ideological Shifts
The five-year trend data included in the report reveals interesting patterns in the types of ideological concerns being identified. While Mixed/Unstable/Unclear and Right-Wing Extremism have consistently represented the largest categories, there have been notable fluctuations. Right-Wing Extremism spiked significantly during 2020-21 (the pandemic period), reaching 45% of all referrals before declining to 32% in the current reporting period.
Meanwhile, referrals related to Islamist extremism have shown a gradual increase, rising from 12% in 2019-20 to 17% in 2023-24. This shift may reflect changing patterns in extremist activities or evolving focus areas within the referral system.
Race-Related Considerations
A notable limitation of the report is the absence of explicit data on race and ethnicity. Given that two major categories of concern are Right-Wing Extremism (often associated with white nationalist ideologies) and Islamist Extremism (which may disproportionately impact Muslim communities), the lack of ethnicity data represents a significant gap in understanding potential disparities in how Prevent operates across different communities.
Without transparent reporting on the racial and ethnic backgrounds of individuals referred to Prevent, it becomes difficult to assess whether the programme is being implemented equitably or whether certain communities are disproportionately targeted. This omission is particularly concerning, given ongoing debates about the potential for racial profiling within counter-terrorism strategies.
Critical Assessment: Gaps and Recommendations
While the report provides valuable quantitative data, several vital gaps and potential improvements can be identified:
Ethnic Monitoring: The complete absence of ethnicity data represents a significant transparency gap. Future reports should include anonymised ethnicity data to assess potential disparities.
Outcome Evaluation: Limited information is provided about the long-term outcomes for individuals who receive Prevent interventions. More detailed follow-up data would help assess the programme's effectiveness.
Mixed/Unstable/Unclear Category: This largest category remains poorly defined and potentially problematic. A more granular analysis of this diverse group would improve understanding of the identified concerns.
False Positives: The report acknowledges that 13% of referrals were ultimately assessed as "No Prevent Issue," but provides little reflection on the implications of these potentially unnecessary referrals.
Methodology Transparency: Greater detail on how ideology categories are assigned would enhance understanding of the classification process, particularly given the report's acknowledgement that recording processes have changed over time.
Reflection
Police Scotland Prevent Referral Data 2023-2024 offers valuable insights into the operation of this controversial programme; significant improvements in data collection, analysis, and transparency would enhance public understanding and the programme's effectiveness. There is a particularly urgent need for better demographic data to ensure that counter-terrorism preventative measures operate without bias across all communities in Scotland.
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